Book sales figures clearly show that book readers are not vanishing and seem to be holding against the advent of social media. While this is encouraging news, will the possible different social composition of book readers and social media users affect the quality of democracy is a question we need to ask
Let me shock you with two related facts. Global book sales were $132.1 billion in 2020 and is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4% from 2021 to 2028 to reach $159.3. (https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/books-market). And you thought people had stopped reading because of the adverse impact of social media! Here is another shocker – a little more than 50% of this sales took place at local book stores! Not e-commerce sites, not the big book stores in major cities but local book shops! Apart from local book shops, other retail stores and specialty stores figure prominently in the list. Sales at local book shops amounted to $66.3 billion and even if there is a slight difference in the composition by 2028 as indicated in the report, such sales would hover around $75 billion. Not bad for brick and mortar! The online segment generated revenue of $36.9 billion, nearly 30% and by 2028 is estimated to be valued at 46.9 billion, again around 30%. Certainly impressive considering that Amazon started the ground-breaking e-store in 1995 but counter-intuitively it stays at 30% six years from now and of an expanded market. We live and learn! Incidentally, do read the entire synopsis at the URL I have mentioned.
Keep reading
This is extremely sobering. As a lover of books, I am delighted to see that they are very much around and the onslaught of the frivolous use of ground-breaking internet technology hasn’t displaced them.
There is more sobering news. There were about 33,100 active scholarly peer-reviewed English-language research journals and about 9,400 non-English journals, as detailed in the fifth edition of the STM Report (Science, Technical and Medical). The report can be freely accessed at https://www.stm-assoc.org/2018_10_04_STM_Report_2018.pdf. The National Law University of Delhi has compiled a list of law journals (print & online) that records more than 5,000 journals. Just think of all the subjects I have left out and imagine the number of active scholarly peer-reviewed journals! And I am not even mentioning the plethora of non-peer-reviewed journals. Search through networks such as SSRN, Google Scholar, InTech and so on and you will witness a significant rise in the number of journals. Part of the logic lies in the fact that newer disciplines are getting formed, and newer areas of research are of interest to many sponsors (without who a great deal of research will simply wither away). And considering the way academic careers are shaped, it is hardly surprising to see the number of journals rising. I won’t labour the point – using Mark Twain’s delightful expression, the death of reading is overstated.
We must now accept listening as a form of reading. Given the spread of diabetes and glaucoma, many people will experience limited vision which will affect their ability to read for longer than a short time. Those who are still hungry to know will shift to audio books. As the report says, “the audiobooks segment is estimated to ascend at a CAGR of 3.5% from 2021 to 2028. The segment is expected to be valued at USD 8.4 billion by 2028”. Incidentally, this also translates into demand for good voices! And a business in training!
Social strata
One of the surprising facts is that hard cover books comprised 78.9% of the total. I would have expected paperbacks to occupy the preeminent position. Given that hard cover copies are priced higher than paperbacks, I wonder if this fact alone holds a clue to the social strata of the readers and as a corollary the social strata of those who populate the world of social media. There seems to be evidence for my conjecture in the report: “Rising consumer spending, coupled with an increased focus on self-development, drives the market for books. Nowadays, consumers are more likely to spend on hobbies they like to pursue and their areas of interest. Moreover, higher importance is being given to leisure activities, resulting in an increased number of readers. This has led to greater momentum in the market. With a surge in purchasing power, consumers are more willing to spend on various products and services in line with their hobbies and interests”. Clearly, we are describing a small section of the total population.
Social media is a different picture altogether although we need to make some qualifications. I understand social media also has its exclusivity with people united by common interests or qualifications or skills or interest but there is a vast body of undifferentiated social media populated by people from all walks of life. According to The Hindu dated February 22, 2022, India had 1.2 billion mobile subscribers in 2021 of which 750 million were smartphone users, quoting a Deloitte 2022 Global TMT (Technology, Media, Entertainment, Telecom) report (https://www.thehindu.com/business/india-to-have-1-billion-smartphone-users-by-2026-deloitte/article65075151.ece). Keen followers of telecom will recall that it was the social users who drove the market for mobile phones, contrary to original expectations. To quote The Hindu, “Internet-enabled devices in the rural market will also get a push with the government’s plan to fiberize all villages by 2025 under the BharatNet programme. Deloitte said 95% replacements in the urban market in 2026 will be toward new smartphones, while only 5% will be toward pre-owned phones compared with 75% and 25%, respectively, in 2021. The rural population is expected to demonstrate a similar trend where the average lifespan of a phone is four years”.
Here is my question or worry. Are we going to see a deepening divide between readers of books (and journals), who might be seen as elitist, and the members of various social media outlets who might be seen as gullible or bullies or flippant or driven to immediate responses? And will such deepening divide also make for more and more insular conversations? What will that mean for the quality of democracy, as a system of government and a principle of society? The great American author Arthur Miller once said that a great newspaper is a nation talking to itself. The significant question is this: How do we understand the conversation in our country, now?
Takeaways
Book sales are growing in all formats
Local book shops are doing fine
On average, book readers and social media users seem to be from significantly different strata of society
What are the implications for democracy?
How do we understand the conversation in India?
